DES MOINES, Iowa (CN) — Former President Donald Trump holds a comfortable lead over a large field of Republican primary candidates in Iowa, according to a poll published Monday by the Des Moines Register. Trump polled ahead his nearest opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by a greater than 2-to-1 margin, with the remaining 12 GOP hopefuls trailing in the single digits.
Trump was the top pick for 42% of Iowa Republicans who say they are likely to attend Feb. 15, 2024, Republican precinct caucuses. DeSantis was in second place with 19%, followed by South Carolina Senator Tim Scott with 9%. Among the remaining candidates in the single digits were former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence with 6% each, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with 5%, and businessman Vivek Ramaswami at 4%.
The Register, NBC News and Medicom by Selzer & Co. conducted the Iowa poll between Aug. 13 and 17, based on phone interviews with 406 registered Iowa voters who say they will definitely or probably attend 2024 Republican caucuses. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Trump’s lead in the latest poll is on par with what The New York Times published on Aug. 4, which had Trump at 44% and DeSantis at 20% among Iowa Republicans. Trump’s Iowa poll results were a bit below the national polling, based on FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of 54.4% as of Monday, with DeSantis, his closest competitor, at 14.9%.
Still, the former president’s support in the Hawkeye State appears to be unshakable: Two-thirds of Iowans polled who supported Trump said their minds were made up, while 69% of those whose top choice was DeSantis said they could be persuaded to pick another candidate.
Trump leads among Iowa evangelicals, 47% of whom say the former president is the first choice, and among self-identified Republicans (as opposed to independents polled) with the support of 51% of members of his own party.
Moreover, his support in Iowa appears to have grown in response to his recent criminal indictments: While the Iowa poll was in the field, Trump’s support was greater after a state indictment charging him with attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. “In the days before the indictment, Trump led DeSantis 38% to 20%,” the Register reported. “In the days after, his lead grew to 43% over DeSantis’ 18%.”
As a way of forecasting how the campaign might shape up before the caucuses, the Iowa poll also measures candidates’ “footprint,” which adds poll respondents who name their first-choice candidate together with those who say that candidate is their second choice and with those who are actively considering that candidate.
“By that measure, about as many likely GOP caucusgoers are considering DeSantis as are considering Trump,” the Register reported. Scott is the only other candidate whose Iowa footprint tops 50%.
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