Day after primary, Democratic race for key Nebraska congressional seat remains a toss-up

OMAHA, Neb. (CN) — It was a hot race for the Democratic nod for U.S. House District 2 in Nebraska, and the morning after the vote remained too close to call.

As of Wednesday morning, Denise Powell, co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska, politically active but never run for office, was ahead of five-year Democratic state Senator John Cavanaugh, having garnered 20,033 votes compared to Cavanaugh’s 18,953, according to Nebraska officials. A total of 51,530 votes had been counted for the race.

The results mean the race’s essential argument — whether it is more important to stop President Donald Trump in Congress versus protecting Democratic priorities like abortion in the overwhelmingly Republican Legislature — is nearly a jump ball.

The Associated Press had not called the race as of mid-morning. The outcome may not be known until Friday, after provisional ballots are counted.

Cavanaugh was considered by many to be the front-runner, but concerns percolated that if he won, GOP Governor Jim Pillen would appoint his replacement. That replacement would no doubt be a Republican, thereby making the Democratic minority in the single-house Nebraska Legislature even smaller.

It could also put at risk Nebraska’s unique system of allowing a presidential candidate who loses the state but wins a congressional district to pick up an electoral vote.

Overwhelmingly conservative, the Cornhusker State has given an electoral vote to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2008, 2020 and 2024, each time from the 2nd U.S. House District.

At the Democratic Party’s election results watch party Tuesday night, the assumption as the clock passed 11 p.m. was that Powell had won the race. Cheers broke out at the news. And the 30 or so partygoers started grabbing their things to go to Powell’s party, to celebrate with the expected victor.

“It is close, but it is clear that the Democratic base wants to make sure that one blue dot electoral vote is protected,” Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair, told Courthouse News as she and others were headed out the door.

Looking toward the general election, Kleeb said the party will focus on outreach in rural areas like Saunders County as well as the Democratic base in Omaha, including Black and Latino voters.

“There is no question that we have a blue wave across the country and here in Nebraska,” she said. “This is about the ground game.”

Cavanaugh has pushed back on concerns about his legislative seat, and he and his supporters point out that this year is likely to be a good one for Democrats — even in Nebraska — with the party likely picking up seats in the unicameral Legislature.

The GOP candidate, Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, ran unopposed. Harding has served on the Omaha City Council since 2017 and was chief of staff to Omaha Mayor Hal Daub in the 1990s. With the primary field cleared for him, his spending needs were minimal. President Donald Trump endorsed him in April.

Observers have described him as a strong candidate, but one facing headwinds in a swing district when the national mood has turned against Trump.

With $648,000 on hand as of late April, Harding has twice as much available for the general election as Powell, who had nearly $324,000, and roughly four times what Cavanaugh has, with about $158,000.

Cavanaugh is the scion of a Democratic political dynasty. His father, John Joseph Cavanaugh, served as a Democrat in the U.S. House from 1977 to 1981, and sister Machaela Cavanaugh serves alongside him in the Legislature. He has hinged his campaign on stopping Trump.

Randall Adkins, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, said the results showed the importance of candidates mobilizing their base of support.

“Competition in campaigns is really important, and on the Democratic side, this is, in a lifetime, the most competitive congressional race that we’ve seen in their party in this district,” he said.

The issue of Cavanaugh’s seat was first brought up on the Democratic side by candidate Crystal Rhoades, a Douglas County court clerk who came in a distant third.

“I’m not sure that was the best strategy. But it ended up ultimately taking him down. But I don’t think it benefitted Crystal — I think it benefitted Powell,” Adkins said.

Cavanaugh supporter Tobin Ehlers, a 64-year-old from Omaha, said that Powell’s campaign left a bad taste in his mouth. He and others said that many of the attacks on Cavanaugh’s seat were from Republican dark money groups, and Powell should have denounced them.

“I think Cavanaugh was the guy who had a lot of experience. If you watched the Legislature, he was able to talk to both political sides and lead compromise and not rush into rash decisionmaking,” Ehlers said Wednesday morning.

Courtney Allen-Gentry, a 63-year-old Democratic-leaning independent from Omaha, did not vote for either Cavanaugh or Powell. However, she said that no matter who wins, things look good for Democrats in the fall, both locally and nationally, with people tired of the Iran war and the economy.

“I think there is going to be a blue wave regardless of what dirty tricks the Republicans are trying to play. I think even white people are tired now,” she said. “I am thinking, finally, things are starting to trickle down."

The district is one of three in the Cornhusker State, and is an anomaly in not only the state but also the region as one of the few that has been represented by a Democrat in Congress over the past decade.

The district consists of Omaha and Douglas County, the most populous in Nebraska, and also part of suburban Sarpy County to the south and the entirety of more rural Saunders County to the east.

While its voters have mostly sent Republicans to Congress in recent decades, it is widely considered a swing district. Democrat Barack Obama won it in the 2008 presidential contest, as did Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.

Since 2017, the seat has been occupied by Republican Don Bacon, a retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general. Bacon toppled single-term incumbent Democrat Brad Ashford in 2016. He is a moderate and has clashed with the Trump administration. He is not running for reelection, and Democrats see an opportunity for a pickup.

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