BRUSSELS (AFP) — The Netherlands on Thursday kicked off a marathon four-day European Union election, in an early test of predictions the far right is headed for big gains in the bloc's parliament.
Exit polls from the Dutch election were expected Thursday evening — well ahead of Sunday when most of the bloc's 27 nations, and 370 million eligible voters, are called to vote.
Geert Wilders' far-right Freedom Party, or PVV, is riding high and projected to claim up to nine European Parliament seats — after failing to win any five years ago.
"We want less immigration, we want to toughen up asylum rules and policies," Wilders, whose party is in a Dutch coalition government after a surprise election win last year, said after voting.
His call has resonated with voters like Simone Nieuwenhuys, a 48-year-old government worker.
"I want the EU to change," she told AFP after casting her ballot for the PVV. "I think we're too open. We should be more critical as to who we let in because it costs a lot of money."
Surveys suggesting the far right could grab a quarter of the EU parliament's 720 seats have rattled its main groupings, the conservative European People's Party, or EPP, and the leftist Socialists and Democrats.
Current European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, seeking a second term, has opened the door to her EPP working with the far right to ensure legislation is passed.
Von der Leyen, a polyglot former German defense minister, has been courting Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, who heads the post-fascist Brothers of Italy party.
EU leaders, including Meloni, will decide after the elections who should helm the commission. Their choice needs the backing of a simple majority in the European Parliament.
‘Wake up’ call
The EU recently overhauled immigration policies to toughen its borders and speed up deportations, but there are already calls from some quarters for an even stricter approach.
In Ireland — which picks up the EU election baton on Friday as the second country to vote — migration and the asylum system have also emerged as leading issues.
Many candidates are running on an anti-immigration platform, either as independents or as members of various fringe nationalist parties which until now have enjoyed limited success at the ballot box.
The EU elections are happening at a time of deep geopolitical uncertainty, with many voters viewing the bloc as a haven of stability.
Member countries, which have thrown their support behind Ukraine as it fights off Russia's invasion, are also confronted with increasing U.S.-China rivalry, turmoil in the Middle East, trade tensions and climate change.
In The Netherlands, while Wilders' message has galvanized some voters, for others it has been a "wake up" call.
Claudia Balhuizen, a 42-year-old engineer, argued for more EU unity in the face of climate change — though she admitted Wilders "is getting a lot more attractive for a lot of people and I can understand that."
Far-right alliance?
Analysts said that while much attention was on the far right's predicted surge, the more important question was whether von der Leyen's EPP would ally with its lawmakers.
"The real storyline of these EU elections is ... the extent to which the center-right is prepared to normalize some of those parties," Alberto Alemanno, an expert on the bloc, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
The possibility of Donald Trump returning as U.S. president after November elections has also focused European minds — and given a boost to parties in the EU aligned with his nationalist views.
While The Netherlands is an early test of the far right's fortunes, scrutiny will soon shift to the EU's bigger economies as they open their polling stations.
Marine Le Pen's National Rally is predicted to come out on top in France, as is Meloni's party in Italy and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's far-right Fidesz.
In Germany, the extreme-right AfD is polling second, behind the opposition conservatives. In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party looks on track for victory.
Polling data compiled by Politico project von der Leyen's EPP winning 172 seats in the next parliament, followed by the Socialists and Democrats, with 143 seats.
Third place could go to the centrist Renew Group, eyeing 75 seats — unless it is overtaken by far-right parties mulling the formation of a supergroup, as Le Pen wants.
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By EMMA CHARLTON with RICHARD CARTER in The Hague, Agence France-Presse
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