Hotly contested Michigan race could offer voters power to sway Senate

DETROIT (CN) — In Michigan, the candidates are plenty and the competition fierce in an Aug. 6 primary that could shift the balance of power in Congress.

U.S. Senate

Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow’s unexpected retirement gave Michigan a pivotal role in the fight for control of the narrowly divided upper chamber, where Democrats maintain a slim 51-49 voting majority thanks to the four independents who caucus with them.

While Republicans have not won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1994, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says the race is considered a toss-up.

U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, leads her party’s race and has an edge in polling for the general election. Slotkin made her political debut in 2018 as a candidate for the 8th Congressional District, now called the 7th District; she announced her run for the open Senate seat in February.

Slotkin raked in more than $6 million for her Senate bid during the last quarter and reported $9.5 million in reserves that boost her total to more than $22 million, according to her Federal Election Commission filing. She planned to spend more than $8 million in advertising for the final push of the campaign.

Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, a professor of political science at Wayne State University, expects Slotkin to advance to the general.

“She has a good track record of turning out her supporters,” she wrote in an email to Courthouse News.

John Clark, a professor of political science at Western Michigan University noted that Slotkin’s “fundraising and experience … put her on a different level.”

Detroiter and actor Hill Harper is running against Slotkin.

“Being an independent voice in the U.S. Senate is something I believe Michiganders want right now,” Harper, known for shows like “The Good Doctor,” told the Associated Press.

Law professor John E. Mogk of Wayne State University believes that it is Slotkin’s race to lose.

“Slotkin’s campaigning and fundraising ability should mean victory for her,” he said.

Among Republicans, former U.S. Congressman Mike Rogers earned the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, something analysts interpreted in different ways.

Mogk noted that Rogers was a capable fundraiser who would likely get a boost from the former president’s approval.

“Trump’s endorsement of Mike Rogers should result in Rogers winning the Republican primary,” he said.

Sarbaugh-Thompson told Courthouse News, “Sometimes independents are a plurality. And a Trump endorsement could hurt Rogers with that pool of voters.”

However, Clark thought the endorsement from the former president was immaterial.

“I think Mike Rogers would have been the front-runner even without the Trump endorsement. Like Slotkin, he has experience and some name recognition,” he said.

Rogers, who served in Congress for 14 years and chaired the House Intelligence Committee, recently gained the endorsement of the Detroit News. Detroit-area businessman Sandy Pensler dropped out of the race Saturday and threw his support behind the former congressman.

Recent polling suggests Rogers has the best chance to beat Slotkin, though she leads polls by varying margins.

He is battling other candidates, including former U.S. Representative Justin Amash, who represented Michigan’s 3rd District from 2011 until 2021.

Amash was the focus of national news in 2019 when he became the first Republican congressman to call for the impeachment of then-President Trump. He eventually left the party to become an independent.

Sarbaugh-Thompson didn’t rule out Amash making a splash but thought it was unlikely he would make it to the general election.

“One can never tell,” she wrote. “Turnout in primary elections is typically low, so a good ground game can produce surprises. I’d look for a very close general election race for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat,” she said.

Clark agreed that Amash had little chance, noting that the libertarian wing of the Michigan GOP would not be able to lift him above Rogers.

U.S. House — 8th District

The 8th Congressional District is one of the 44 U.S. House races without an incumbent running. Democratic U.S. Representative Dan Kildee, a Democrat from Flint Township who has held the seat since 2013, survived a cancer scare and said the experience led him to “reassess his future.”

Thompson-Sabaugh said, “I think the outcome will depend on turnout. Multi-candidate primaries can produce some unlikely outcomes.”

Republicans hope to steal the seat to expand their razor-thin majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Republican Paul Junge lost to Kildee by about 10 percentage points in 2022, so a primary win for him is not out of the question. Junge is a former criminal prosecutor and TV news anchor in Lansing.

Clark surmised Junge might have found a path this time around.

“Junge’s previous runs were against incumbents, so his chances in the general election are better in an open seat race,” he wrote. Junge also lost to Slotkin in 2020.

Junge has raised more than $1 million, with the majority coming from a loan he made to the campaign, according to his Federal Election Commission filings.

Junge is running against mid-Michigan businesswoman Mary Draves, a former Dow Chemical executive; and trucking company owner Anthony Hudson who was criticized for a campaign video that used an AI-generated voice of Martin Luther King Jr. to endorse him.

State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet leads polling for the Democratic primary race over candidate Matt Collier but lags behind Junge in general election polling.

McDonald Rivet, a former businesswoman who held executive positions in local social service non-profits, was elected to the state Senate in 2022, the first Democrat in more than a decade and the first woman to ever represent the Great Lakes Bay Region.

Kildee endorsed McDonald Rivet for the vacant seat at a rally on July 2, and Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer shared her endorsement on social media in late June.

Clark likes her chances.

“Rivet has the advantage of representing much of the northern part of the district in the state Senate; that would be an advantage in the general election,” he wrote. The district includes Bay City, Midland and Saginaw.

Matt Collier is attempting a political comeback after 30 years. In 1987, he became Flint’s youngest-ever mayor at 29. He left to pursue executive positions in the private sector when his four-year term ended.

U.S. House — 10th District

In the 10th Congressional District, a host of Democratic candidates hopes to unseat Republican Representative John James, who squeaked out a victory in 2022 against Carl Marlinga by less than 2,000 votes.

Marlinga, a former Macomb County prosecutor, assistant U.S. attorney and judge, will likely advance to face James again.

Also on the Democratic ballot is Emily Busch, the mother of an Oxford High School student who was present during the 2021 school shooting that left four students dead. Busch is championing gun safety in her agenda.

Clark believes that James could hang on to his seat in November with a possible “sophomore surge” that would extend his narrow margin in the district.

“James has a done a good job of walking the line between the MAGA- and more-traditional wings of the Republican party,” he said.

He added: “It doesn’t hurt that he’s raised a lot of money, which is easier to do as an incumbent.”

Local clerks mailed absentee ballots out to Michigan voters on June 27. Registered voters can cast ballots early, in person, from July 27 to Aug. 4.