JD Vance and Tim Walz look to make a name for themselves at vice-presidential debate

MANHATTAN (CN) — Republican U.S. Senator JD Vance and Democratic Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will face off Tuesday evening in the only scheduled vice-presidential debate of this election cycle.

It’s likely to be the last debate of any kind before Americans cast their ballots in November, since presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris haven’t scheduled a subsequent showdown after their debate earlier this month.

With the election just five weeks away, the meeting between Vance and Walz — two relative newcomers to the stage of national politics — could be the last chance either party has to push its ticket over the hump.

As it stands, current polling has the race neck-and-neck. Harris holds a slight national lead of around 3%. A knockout performance — or an implosion — from either Vance or Walz could have a real impact come November, according to experts.

“The worst case scenario is that they go off message and that they essentially do some sort of harm to the ticket,” Joshua Scacco, director of the Center for Sustainable Democracy at the University of South Florida, told Courthouse News. “The best case scenario is that they confirm why individuals are voting for that particular ticket, and can serve as a mobilization tool for voting, for fundraising, for volunteering.”

Vice-presidential debates don’t typically move the needle when it comes to immediate polling, Scacco said. What they do is introduce the American public to the candidates, who are often personally overshadowed by their presidential running mates, and who can help drive home the party’s platform and vision for the future.

With a race as tight as this one, the mobilization battle alone could ultimately choose the next president. If so, Vance will have more to do come Tuesday night.

“The polling and the surveys indicate that enthusiasm slightly favors the Democrats,” Scacco said.

Harris does have the benefit of being a fresh addition to the ticket, after a tumultuous first debate performance from current President Joe Biden earlier this year prompted him to suspend his reelection campaign and throw his support behind Harris as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

The announcement energized the Democratic base, which saw a massive influx in funding as soon as Harris took the party’s helm. She raised a stunning $81 million in the first 24 hours of her presidential campaign, and $200 million in the first week, according to numerous reports.

Meanwhile, Trump has been at the top of the Republican ticket for the past three election cycles. His floor remains strong, with a base of working-class white voters who turned out in droves to deliver him the presidency in 2016.

Harris’ pick for vice president in Walz was a direct appeal to those voters, according to Mark Shanahan, a U.S. politics professor at the University of Surrey.

“The former high school teacher and football coach has emerged as a down-to-earth Ordinary Joe ​who has captured the zeitgeist and operates as an effective foil to the lawyerly political insider Kamala Harris,” Shanahan told Courthouse News.

According to Shanahan, Walz’s role on Tuesday is simple: appear in lockstep with Harris by re-emphasizing her policy positions while coming across as a capable leader in his own right.

Like Scacco, Shanahan agrees that Vance will have more work to do. The Republican Party didn’t get the same jolt of energy that the Democrats did just a few months ago. And while Trump boasts a consistent floor of support, his 2020 loss raised serious questions over his ability to grow his base enough to get back to the White House.

In an ideal world for Republicans, that’s where Vance would come in.

“Trump doesn’t do detail and largely talks about himself on the stump and in debate,” Shanahan said. “Vance has to fill in the gaps.”

But it’s a tall task, especially considering the rift in polled likability between Vance and Walz.

“Comparing the two, Tim Walz, I think in most or all surveys, has a net favorability rating,” Scacco said. “JD Vance is underwater in terms of favorability.”

Shanahan noted that Trump’s pick of Vance has “alienated some voters, especially women.”

Shortly after being named as Trump’s running mate, Vance was criticized after clips resurfaced of a 2021 interview with Fox News, where he bemoaned that the country was being run by a “bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives.”

After facing backlash, Vance clarified that his remarks were criticism of the Democratic Party, not people who don’t have children.

Still, Vance could be held to a higher level of scrutiny since the likelihood of him needing to step into the president’s shoes is far greater than that of Walz. At 78 years old, Trump would be the oldest president in U.S. history if he wins in November, highlighting Vance’s role should Trump be unable to complete his term.

Democrats have all but ducked that narrative now that Biden is off the ticket.

For most Americans, Tuesday night will be about first impressions. A recent poll showed that about four in 10 Americans don’t know enough about Walz to have an opinion on him, and roughly three in 10 don’t know about Vance. As fresh faces in national politics, the vice-presidential debate will be the first major test for both of them.

The debate is set for 90 minutes, and will air live Tuesday on CBS News at 9 p.m. ET in New York City.

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