Kamala Harris the clear Democratic front-runner for California governor: Poll

(CN) — Former Vice President Kamala would be the Democratic favorite for governor of California if she chooses to enter the race to replace Gavin Newsom in 2026, new pollingfrom Emerson College revealed Thursday morning.

The Emerson poll found that nearly 6 in 10 (57%) of registered Democratic voters in the Golden State said they would support Harris if she chose to run. In addition to her four years as vice president under Joe Biden, Harris served as U.S. senator from California from 2017-2021 and as the state’s 32nd attorney general. Harris was born in Berkeley and spent most of her youth in the Bay Area.

Harris’ deep ties to California have led to speculation about what she will do next in her political career though she has remained mum on her political future, telling reporters last week in Los Angeles that she had barely thought about what her next move will be. With her connections to California along with her national political experience, many see her as a natural fit to replace Newsom — though she could also decide to run again for president in 2028.

Political insiders believe Newsom has his sights set on a potential run for president in 2028 or other national offices when he’s termed out in 2026.

Support for Harris in the Emerson poll dwarfs the next highest potential candidate — former Representative Katie Porter a Democrat who represented Orange County before mounting an unsuccessful Senate bid last year. Just 9% of Democratic voters said they would support a Porter bid for governor if Harris is also in the race.

“Support for Harris is strongest among women (60%), Hispanics (61%), and Black voters (64%),” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “If Vice President Harris enters the primary, she would start as the clear favorite. Without Harris in the race, the primary is wide open.”

If Harris does not run, 45% of California Democratic primary voters reported they are undecided on who they would support. Porter leads in that scenario with 21% of voters supporting her, with 9% supporting former California Assembly speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and 5% expressing support for current Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalaki.

Climate change and wildfires also topped the minds of those polled, with 62% saying they support California spending more money to increase firefighter staffing and equipment.

“Majorities of Democrats (68%), Republicans (61%), and independents (54%) support increased state spending on firefighter staffing and equipment, reflecting heightened concern amid wildfire threats,” Kimball said.

And 70% of those polled said they believed climate change is contributing to California’s recent wildfires.

“Voters under 40 (75%) and over 70 (73%) are most confident climate change contributed to recent wildfires, though a majority of all age groups agree,” Kimball said.

Voters were split on whether President Donald Trump’s order to open up dams in the state was a good thing, with 52% saying it was a bad idea compared to 48% who supported Trump’s order.

“There is a partisan divide on Trump’s actions in California: 72% of Democrats think the opening of Central California dams was a bad thing for the state, while 83% of Republicans think it was a good thing,” Kimball said. “Independents best represent the divide: 51% think it was a good thing and 49% a bad thing.”

The polling was conducted Feb. 10-11 among 1,000 registered California voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among the 469 Democratic primary voters, the credibility interval was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.