(CN) — British voters will head to the polls Thursday to elect a new government in a general election which is expected to be historic: The ruling Conservative Party, in power in the United Kingdom since 2010, is expected to be dramatically swept from office in a landslide for the opposition Labour Party.
The result has appeared to be something of a foregone conclusion ever since the chaotic seven-week premiership of Liz Truss in 2022, who brought the country to the brink of a financial crisis with her radical tax-cutting economic policies. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has failed to recover the party’s reputation since the Truss debacle.
However, the sheer scale of Labour’s likely victory has become clearer over the course of the election campaign, in which the party’s low-key approach has helped to maintain its roughly 20-point polling lead over the Conservatives.
All pollsters anticipate Labour winning over 420 constituencies in the 650-seat U.K. Parliament. This would make Labour’s parliamentary majority the largest since 1832, eclipsing even former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s crushing victories in 1997 and 2001.
Labour leader Keir Starmer has sought to portray his party as a beacon of stability, unity and even dullness, recognizing the electorate has tired of years of political drama associated with the Conservative Party, which has been riven by factional divides ever since the Brexit vote in 2016.
For the first time since 2005, Labour has much of the British press backing it, with major tabloid The Sun swinging their weight behind the party on the last day of campaigning. The are joined by several usually Conservative outlets such as the Financial Times, The Sunday Times and The Evening Standard.
Despite apparently cruising to victory, Starmer has largely escaped scrutiny from the government and media by offering a relatively opaque policy platform that leaves the electorate with an unclear idea of what they can expect from his administration. His evasiveness is a primary factor is his deeply unimpressive personal ratings — a lack of popularity and enthusiasm which starkly contrasts with the landslide result he is expected to achieve.
The Conservative campaign, meanwhile, has featured a number of memorable blunders, including Sunak’s failure to attend a World War II commemoration with other world leaders and a betting scandal which has engulfed members of the prime minister’s entourage.
The Conservatives have made tax cuts, the reintroduction of compulsory national service, and their controversial Rwandan deportation scheme the main focus areas of their campaign — but surveys suggest the median British voter is no longer listening to the party. On the eve of polling day, the prime minister is reportedly anxious about keeping his own seat. A sitting prime minister losing their seat would be unprecedented in British politics, but does appear possible in a worst-case scenario outcome for the party.
Perhaps the major story of the election, however, has come from outside the main two political parties. Instead it is the Reform Party that has galvanized the campaign following the dramatic return of right-wing populist Nigel Farage to front-line politics.
Farage, who may enter Parliament for the first time in his decadeslong political career, has seen his party climb to highs of 24% in the polls and regularly outpoll the Conservative Party that he has made it his mission to replace.
As the campaign has gone on, the primary concern of the Conservatives has shifted sharply away from Labour and toward Reform, such is the threat of being usurped as the primary vehicle for right-wing politics in Britain.
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it unlikely that Reform will be able to pick up more than a handful of parliamentary seats. However, they will split the right-wing vote in hundreds of constituencies, which may leave the Conservatives with far less representation that they could have otherwise secured. Reform’s calculation is that an unpopular Conservative Party with a small parliamentary contingent will be far easier to influence, and potentially replace at the following election.
The Conservative Party has dominated the British right for almost 200 years — and far longer in its previous iteration as the Tories. A meaningful parliamentary split on the right is unprecedented, and could be as significant a development in British politics as Labour’s overtaking of the Liberal Party in the early 20th century.
Farage’s party stands on a hodgepodge of populist policies, combining massive tax cuts and a strong anti-immigration agenda with partial nationalization of utilities, attracting support from across the political spectrum, as well as with disillusioned non-voters.
The Liberal Democrats are also expected to perform strongly amid the collapse of the Conservative vote. In particular they are heavily targeting Conservative seats in southern England in the hope of regaining their status as a major parliamentary force.
Some projections even have the Lib Dems winning more seats that the Conservatives, and regaining their status as the Official Opposition for the first time since the 1920s. Such a result would represent an astonishing comeback for a party which was all but wiped out in 2015 after an unpopular stint as the junior coalition party in government.
However far more likely an outcome is that the Liberal Democrats will resume their status as Parliament’s third-largest force, taking the place of the scandal-ridden Scottish National Party which is expected to lose seats after a series of leadership crises over the past 18 months.
The Green Party is also headed for its strongest general election results to date, hoping to quadruple its parliamentary representation to four seats. A number of independent candidates are also putting up strong fights against the major parties. Most notably former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, removed from the party by Starmer, is seeking to defeat his former party in the London constituency of Islington North, which he has represented since 1983. The race currently appears too close to call.
Whilst the anti-Conservative vote is likely to splinter in different directions based on various local factors, the general public mood in Britain on the evening of the election is clear. After 14 years of Conservative government, Brits are angry at the state of underperforming public services, declining living standards, and constant parliamentary scandal and theatrics. The challenge for a Starmer administration will be to convince a deeply skeptical public that his party can rise to the occasion.
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