BRUSSELS (CN) — French President Emmanuel Macron sparked pandemonium across the French government by effectively dismantling it overnight.
During the European Parliament elections on Sunday, projected results began to confirm what had been expected for months: The far right National Rally, or RN, would crush Macron’s Renew. The RN, led by Marine Le Pen's 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella, won the elections with around 32% of the vote. Macron's coalition, led by candidate Valérie Hayer, came in second with roughly 15%, trailing by a wide margin.
In the midst of an already hectic night, as votes were being tallied, Macron announced that he would dissolve France’s National Assembly, the country’s lower chamber of parliament. Snap elections will determine its new composition.
“I could not, at the end of this day, act as if nothing was happening,” Macron said in a televised address. “Therefore, I will dissolve the National Assembly tonight.”
The decision is a massive political gamble. First of all, there have been no recent polls surveying peoples’ voting intentions in this type of election. Then, Macron risks losing even more seats in the parliament. If this happens, and the RN takes the lead, Macron would be forced to hand over domestic governing power to them.
“I think it’s the biggest risk I can imagine,” Hall Gardner, professor of politics at The American University of Paris, told Courthouse News. “I’m not sure his party has the same following that they had before, so I’m just worried that one, people aren’t voting, and two, he doesn’t have what he used to have in terms of the charisma.”
In direct contrast to Macron, Le Pen and her followers have been rallying support. Gardner cites the RN’s change in rhetoric — in which they’ve tried to tone down the extreme positions and normalize the party — as another factor that could play against Macron.
“I’m afraid Macron’s gamble here is really risky,” Gardner added.
It is unlikely that the RN would take a majority. If they did, even though Macron would retain his right to choose the prime minister, he would have to pick someone from their ranks.
In France, this type of government is deemed “cohabitation,” in which the president and prime minister come from opposing parties. The last time this happened was in 1997, when then-president Jacques Chirac lost a similar gamble, and the opposition left took the win.
The RN hasn't wasted any time. They’ve already put forth a candidate: Bardella.
Luc Rouban, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po in Paris, argues that although the decision came as a shock, it makes some sense. It could almost be likened to a surprise attack on Bardella.
“He caught the RN in its own trap,” Rouban told Courthouse News. “I think he certainly didn’t believe that Emmanuel Macron would do the dissolution, I think he told himself deep down, Macron would say ‘no, no, these are the European Elections, it doesn’t concern the national political scene.'”
Rouban believes that if Macron hadn't made this move, it would have given the RN an opportunity to solidify its base even more.
“It would have strengthened the RN, who would have played into the democratic crisis or disapointment by saying ‘look, Emmanuel Macron isn’t listening to the people,'” Rouban said.
After the vote, even if there is a relative majority, Rouban argued, at least the situation will be clear and the French population would have had a voice.
In the immediate aftermath of Macron’s announcement, Le Pen said the RN was “ready to exercise power, ready to put an end to mass immigration.”
The party’s immigration agenda has long been a controversial pillar of its mandate. It seeks to tighten controls and implement what it calls a “double border,” which has been widely criticized as a policy lacking a real implementation plan.
“What’s the idea? Let’s say that Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister,” Rouban said. “He will discredit himself or lose his credibility, and then in 2027, there will be the choice in the presidential vote.”
The two-round election will be held on June 30 and July 7.
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