New California governor poll shows Becerra and Steyer in tight Democratic race

(CN) — A new poll of California voters released Thursday shows a changeup as former Joe Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra now rivals billionaire activist Tom Steyer before the state’s primary election for governor on June 2.

The results of the Emerson College Polling survey show that Becerra received a significant bump after Congressman Eric Swalwell announced his departure from the race and his resignation from Congress this week amid accusations of sexual misconduct.

Becerra served as the secretary of Health and Human Services under Biden and as California attorney general from 2017-2021. Steyer, who has not served in elected office, is an investor and environmental activist who previously ran for president in 2020.

“In the first Emerson poll since Eric Swalwell’s departure from the race for governor, Democrats now split their vote between Tom Steyer (20%), Xavier Becerra (19%), and Katie Porter (15%), with Becerra gaining 15 points among Democrats without Swalwell on the ballot,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a release about the new poll.

A survey of 1,000 respondents between April 14-15 across California saw 17% supporting Republican Steve Hilton, 14% backing Republican Chad Bianco, 14% in line for Democrat Steyer, 10% for Democrat Becerra, 10% supporting Democrat Porter, and 5% behind Democrat Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose.

However, about 23% of the survey respondents said they are undecided. California has a so-called jungle primary, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party.

“Hilton and Bianco continue to split the Republican vote, 48% supporting Hilton and 40% Bianco, while independents are more fragmented: 16% support Steyer, 15% Hilton, 14% Bianco, and 10% Porter,” Kimball said.

The poll was taken after Swalwell’s departure to determine the candidates for the April 22 gubernatorial debate. With Swalwell out of the picture, Becerra and Mahan qualified to be on the stage.

The survey also found the economy, including jobs, taxes and inflation, remain voters’ top concern, with 41% of respondents saying it’s the biggest issue facing Californians today. That is an increase of about 4% from last month’s poll. Housing affordability was the most important issue for 20% of respondents, followed by threats to democracy at 10%, crime at 6%, immigration at 6%, and health care at 6%.

Poll results show that men were more evenly divided among Republican candidates, with 19% supporting Hilton and Bianco and 18% supporting Steyer. But women were split, with 14% supporting Hilton, 14% supporting Becerra, 13% supporting Porter, 11% supporting Steyer and 11% supporting Bianco.

Voters under the age of 50 support Steyer at 15%, followed by Becerra at 13% and Porter at 11%. But voters over the age of 50 strongly supported Hilton at 24%, followed by Bianco at 14%, Steyer at 13%, Porter at 10% and Becerra at 8%.

Swalwell had held a narrow lead in the March Emerson College poll, but suspended his campaign for governor Sunday and announced his resignation from Congress Monday amid claims of sexual assault and misconduct from multiple women, including a congressional staffer. Swalwell, who represents California’s 14th Congressional District in the East Bay, denied the allegations, but said he would take ownership of the mistakes he made.

Last month’s surveyalso showed Governor Gavin Newsom held a 45% job approval rating among California likely voters — an increase of 1% from the previous month — though 40% of respondents disapproved of the job Newsom is doing.

President Donald Trump held a 28% job approval rating among California respondents, while 64% disapproved.

Trump endorsed Hilton, a businessman and former Fox News host, over Bianco, who is sheriff of Riverside County. However, the California GOP declined to endorse either candidate since neither reached the 60% threshold of votes from party members required for endorsement.

The poll, which is sponsored by Inside California Politics, a political show produced by Nexstar Media Group, has a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points and is weighted by gender, age and education, according to U.S. Census and voter data.