Poll puts Lander ahead in congressional race after Mamdani, Sanders nods

(CN) — Polling numbers published Thursday show Brad Lander, a former New York City comptroller who has the endorsement of progressive politicians including Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, heartily beating incumbent U.S. Representative Dan Goldman in the upcoming Democratic primary for New York’s 10th Congressional District.

In the district, which covers lower Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn, Lander has a 34-point lead over Goldman, with 57% support compared to Goldman’s 23%, according to numbers posted by Emerson College and news channel PIX 11.

Lander, who grabbed headlines after he was arrested last summer while escorting a man out of immigration court in Lower Manhattan, largely has the youth to thank for the stronghold, pollsters said.

“While all age groups break for Lander, his most significant support comes from voters under 40, who break for Lander over Goldman, 73% to 15%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

“Voters over 70 are more split; 38% support Lander, while 31% support Goldman,” Kimball said.

Another 20% of voters in District 10 said they were undecided in the poll of 450 people.

Kimball’s team predicts a closer outcome in New York’s 7th Congressional District, in Brooklyn and Queens, where a three-way race is underway for retiring U.S. Representative Nydia Velázquez’s seat. Leading the poll is state Assemblymember Claire Valdez with 23% support from Democratic primary voters. Right behind her is Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso at 21%, followed by City Councilmember Julie Won with 13% in the survey of 350 voters.

Beating all candidates in the district, however, is the undecided vote: 43% of those asked said they haven’t made up their minds yet.

Like Lander, young voters are giving Valdez the edge.

“There is a clear age divide among primary voters; voters under 40 support Valdez over Reynoso, 33% to 15%, while voters in their 40s are split, 23% Valdez to 22% Reynoso,” Kimball said. “Voters over 50 break for Reynoso over Valdez, 27% to 13%.”

The widest spread in the three districts covered in Thursday’s poll is in New York’s 12th Congressional District, which spans much of Manhattan. U.S. Representative Jerry Nadler holds the recently redistricted seat, and after 33 years in the House, he’s not seeking reelection.

With Nadler’s endorsement, state Assemblymember Micah Lasher leads the poll at 22% support — edging out Assemblymember Alex Bores’ 20%. Coming in at 11% and 10%, respectively, are social media commentator Jack Schlossberg and attorney George Conway.

In the District 12 poll of 425 voters, Kimball said candidate preference varies by gender.

“[M]en break for Bores over Lasher, 27% to 19%, while women break for Lasher over Bores, 24% to 15%, followed by Schlossberg at 13%,” Kimball said.

The poll also notes that Mamdani has a hearty approval rating among Democratic voters in all three districts: 79% in the 10th District; 78% in the 7th District; and 66% in the 12th District.

New York’s Congressional Democratic primary takes place June 23. Early voting runs from June 13 to June 21. In the deeply blue state, winning the primary is a more than likely signal that a candidate will end up in office following November’s general election.

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