Poll puts Swalwell in lead for California gubernatorial race

(CN) — Democratic U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell has emerged as the narrow front-runner in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, according to an Emerson College poll released Wednesday.

Conducted March 7-9 among 1,000 likely California voters, Swalwell led with 17% support, trailed closely by Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 13%. Billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco tied at 11% each, while former U.S. Representative Katie Porter garnered 8% support.

Notably, 25% of respondents remain undecided, suggesting the race remains fluid less than three months before the June primary.

The poll, which has a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points, was weighted by gender, age and education using U.S. Census and voter file data. Among Democrats, Swalwell’s support rose from 23% in February to 27%, while Steyer gained ground from 12% to 16%. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted this and other trends among party-affiliated voters. Unaffiliated voters are less decisive.

“It looks like the governor’s race is coming a little bit more into focus,” Kimball elaborated in a television appearance Wednesday. “We can see Eric Swalwell has continued to pick up a little bit of momentum there. His numbers have gone up another three points. He’s doing better with those older voters … and the post grads."

He added in a statement accompanying the poll: “A plurality of the independent electorate is undecided (39%), while 12% support Swalwell and Hilton respectively, and Republicans are split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (34%)."

The poll also highlighted voter priorities on the next governor’s approach to the Trump administration. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64%) prefer a governor who challenges the administration, while 36% favor one who supports the president. Among the former group, Swalwell leads at 25%, followed by Steyer at 15% and Porter at 12%, with 28% undecided. Among those preferring cooperation, Hilton tops at 36% and Bianco at 31%.

Current Governor Gavin Newsom’s job approval stands at 45%, up a point from February, while 40% of California voters disapprove of Newsom’s performance. The state’s top issues include the economy (37%), housing affordability (22%), threats to democracy (11%), immigration (8%), and health care (7%). A majority (53%) believe homelessness is worsening.

“It looks like pocketbook issues are going to drive this election, the economy seems to be the driver here in 2026,” Kimball said.

In a separate Los Angeles mayoral survey of 350 likely voters, the race appears wide open. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds 20% support, but 51% are undecided. Other candidates include reality TV personality Spencer Pratt (10%), Councilwoman Nithya Raman (9%), entrepreneur Adam Miller (4%), and housing advocate Rae Huang (3%). Among Democrats, Bass leads with 27% to Raman’s 14%; Republicans favor Pratt at 29%; and independents are 67% undecided. Bass’s approval in the city is 24%, with 47% disapproving.

“The 47% is very concerning for the incumbent, because obviously you want to get to that 50% threshold, and if 47% are already against you, that’s a lot of ground to make up,” Kimball said. “At this point it looks like Bass is underwater, and she’s going to have to create a message that convinces voters that she should get reelected… we’ll see if somebody can knock her off and make an upset.”

The California primary system is a so-called “jungle primary,’ where the top two challengers advance to the general election regardless of party. This will set the stage for a potentially competitive November matchup depending on how the field consolidates in the coming months.

Follow @gabetynes