Poll reveals crowded Kentucky Senate race to replace McConnell

(CN) — U.S. Representative Andy Barr appears to be extending his lead over former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate seat set to be vacated by Mitch McConnell.

According to an Emerson College poll released Thursday, 28% of Republicans would vote for Barr, 21% would vote for Cameron and 15% would vote for Nate Morris, a businessman and political newcomer.

That leaves 29% of likely conservative voters undecided just over six weeks out from the May 19 primary.

“Barr maintains his early advantage in a fragmented Republican field, but with nearly three in 10 voters undecided, the primary remains fluid,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

On the blue side of the ticket, state representative Charles Booker maintained a sizeable lead over former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath.

In the month since Emerson conducted its last poll, Booker elevated his share of the potential vote from 30% to 36%, while McGrath’s numbers dipped from 19% to 18%. However, 38% of likely voters remain undecided about the Democratic primary.

The two Democrats squared off in the same race in 2020 before McGrath secured the nomination but ultimately lost to the incumbent McConnell.

Booker then became the first Black candidate for U.S. Senate in Kentucky history in 2022, but lost to incumbent Rand Paul.

As ever, President Donald Trump looms large over the race on the Republican side, where he has yet to endorse a candidate.

Nearly half of the Republican voters polled by Emerson, 46%, said an endorsement from Trump would make them more likely to support a candidate, although 41% said it would make no difference.

Justin Buchler, a political science professor at Case Western Reserve University, cautioned against making too much of a potential endorsement, noting the data to support Trump’s ability to swing a race “is actually quite weak.”

“Trump has actually endorsed a lot of losers,” Buchler said. “Even looking at the candidates he endorsed who won, it’s hard to attribute those victories to his endorsement.”

He specifically cited Vice President JD Vance’s Senate race, and pointed out Vance’s poll numbers jumped significantly in the weeks before the president’s endorsement.

University of Cincinnati political science professor David Niven echoed Buchler’s thoughts, but said the endorsement could still make a difference.

“It would make a small difference, but a small difference could very well decide the race,” Niven said. “If Trump endorses, it won’t be a massive shake-up, but a few points added alters the race dramatically.”

Niven also speculated that a Trump endorsement is Morris’ most likely route to catching the other candidates, but his political outsider mantra might find a sympathetic ear in the president.

The large number of undecided voters in each party will undoubtedly have a substantial impact on the eventual primary winners, but Buchler said it remains difficult to determine what will ultimately sway their votes.

“The best predictors of voter choice are party identification and incumbency,” he said. “You have, right now, an open seat primary, which means the most prominent cues for voters are absent.”

Niven believes Democrats won’t concern themselves with the outcome of their opponent’s primary, instead remaining focused on making their candidate as attractive as possible.

“I think for the Democrats, it probably doesn’t matter who the Republican candidate is because they’re running against Trump and they’re running against the Republican party,” he said.

Emerson’s poll proved one thing regardless of political party: Kentuckians are not happy with the performance of their current senators.

McConnell, 84, has been dogged by health problems in the past several years, and 71% of the voters polled disapprove of his performance.

Paul fared slightly better but was still on the wrong side of the poll, with 39% of voters disapproving of his performance and 28% approving.

Niven called McConnell’s poll result “an alarming number,” especially considering Kentuckians have elected him to the Senate at every opportunity since 1984, but singled out Paul’s numbers as a sign Republican superiority might be waning, albeit slightly.

In tackling the approval numbers of the current senators, Buchler was hesitant to say they could mean Kentucky might lean more toward the Democratic candidate in the November election.

He emphasized McConnell’s health issues are largely responsible for the decline in his approval, and compared the situation to Joe Biden’s debate performance against Trump before the 2024 presidential election.

Voters were also asked which candidate they felt would most likely endorse Trump’s presidential agenda, with Barr, Cameron, and Morris finishing in the same order as the primary question.

Unsurprisingly, in deep red Kentucky, which has supported the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1996, over half of voters approve of the job Trump is doing during his second term.

Emerson College conducted the poll between Sunday and Tuesday, sampling 1,050 likely voters in the Bluegrass State.

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