Trump ally sets sights on Arizona's Democratic governor

PHOENIX (CN) — Carrying endorsements from President Donald Trump and the late Charlie Kirk, MAGA Republican Andy Biggs will challenge Arizona’s Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, for her seat in November.

Biggs defeated fellow U.S. Representative David Schweikert by more than 300,000 votes in the GOP primary Tuesday as hardline conservatives prevailed amid low voter turnout. Only 22% of registered Republicans cast a ballot, compared to 34% two years ago.

“Both sides have kind of settled into who they think they are,” Northern Arizona University professor Stephen Nuño told Courthouse News Wednesday morning. “This was an election really it seems for party faithfuls. And that’s why we don’t see many surprises.”

Biggs will now face Hobbs, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, in what insiders are calling one of the toughest incumbent reelection efforts in the country.

Despite having raised more than $9.5 million this election cycle, Hobbs faces a difficult road ahead in a state where Republicans have a nine-point voter registration advantage. In 2024, Trump won Arizona by the widest margin of any other swing state, and Hobbs won the tightest gubernatorial race in the country in 2022 by only 17,000 votes — less than 1%. Her narrow margin of victory led to years of legal challenges.

Still, Biggs may struggle in a state where one-third of registered voters are independents.

“If you’re relying on only Republicans or only Democrats to win, you will lose,” University of Arizona professor Samara Klar told Courthouse News. “To win in Arizona, at this point I think a Republican would have to distance himself from Trump’s policies more than what we’ve seen recently.”

No Trump-backed Republican has lost a statewide primary in Arizona. But since 2018, only one of them, former Governor Doug Ducey, has won a statewide general election. This year, all nine congressional candidates endorsed by Turning Point USA won their Republican primaries.

Schweikert, the only Republican congressman not invited to a Turning Point USA rally in Phoenix in April, painted himself as a less extreme candidate, more appealing to moderate voters. He warned that Biggs will prove to be another MAGA candidate too extreme to win Arizona.

Nuño, who studies politics and international affairs, called Biggs’ 73% of the vote an underperformance, and agreed with Shweikert that Biggs may struggle with turnout in November.

“There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of enthusiasm for Andy Biggs among independents,” Nuño said.

By contrast, he called Hobbs a “sobering leader” who has largely avoided far-left rhetoric and has taken more centrist stances in the tradition of late John McCain.

“It’s helpful to have angry Democrats. Angry Democrats is a feature, not a flaw for her at this point,” Nuño said. ”It’s a very Arizona thing.”

Hobbs defeated Kari Lake in 2022 largely by staying quiet, allowing Lake’s extreme stances to speak for themselves. On Tuesday night, she took time to highlight her opponent’s more extreme views.

“He not only is an ally of Trump and refuses to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election, but he went so far as to help plan Jan. 6,” Hobbs said after the Republican primary was called. “He also helped orchestrate the fake elector scheme that went on here in Arizona.”

In the race to replace Biggs in Congressional District 5, former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb earned the Republican nomination over Daniel Keenan by 12,540 votes.

Lamb bills himself as “America’s Sheriff” in true Arizona fashion, pushing for tough border security and “America First” policies. Though it hasn’t stopped him yet, Lamb’s campaign has been marred by reports that Lamb engaged for years in sexual misconduct, explicit messages and abuse of power, and was investigated by the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Lamb’s campaign has denied the accusations.

“Those kinds of scandals seem not to do too much harm for Republicans from the very top,” Nuño said, comparing it to Biggs’ association with January 6 and Shweikert’s House Ethics violations in 2020. “I’m not surprised at all that voters are willing to overlook that.”

He compared that to what he considers a lesser scandal: JoAnna Mendoza, the Democratic candidate in Congressional District 6, was caught following OnlyFans and witchcraft accounts on social media.

“That’s a gap in audacity there,” Nuño said.

Lamb will run against political newcomer Elizabeth Lee, who won the Democratic primary with a commanding 65.2% of the vote.

“Nurse Lee” is a board-certified patient advocate and reproductive health and infertility nurse focused on abortion rights and healthcare affordability. After securing the nomination, Lee now faces an uphill battle in a district long held by Republicans. Biggs has repeatedly won reelection there by wide margins.

Klar said Lee would struggle to make Lamb’s scandals the focal point of her opposition.

“I think the best strategy is trying to connect Lamb with the policies of this administration that people have not supported,” Klar said. “The mood of the electorate is not very pro-incumbent right now. Trump’s approval rating is very low.”

To replace Schweikert in Congressional District 1, former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely beat former Republican state Representative Joseph Chaplik by just under 10,000 votes.

Having worked as a CBS broadcaster for 10 years after a 14-year football career, Feely gained popularity in the political sphere as a Trump loyalist, touting himself as an “America First” candidate in line with the president’s positions on border security and energy independence.

In November, Feely will run against Amish Shah, who defeated Marlene Galán-Woods in the Democratic primary for the second time in two years.

Shah lost to Schweikert in 2024, and is now vying again for that seat after he defeated the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-endorsed Galán-Woods by just under 5,000 votes, earning 40% of the total count to Galán-Woods’ 33.6%.

Klar describes both Shah and Galán-Woods as “relatively moderate,” without stark contrasts between them.

Experts see the general election as a toss-up.

In Congressional District 6, incumbent Juan Ciscomani won the Republican primary without any challengers. Similarly, Mendoza earned the Democratic nomination as the only candidate on the ballot.

The district is considered one of the most competitive on the map this year. Though it swung for Trump in 2024, Democrats have carried the district in recent statewide elections. Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego won the district in 2024, as did Hobbs and Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in 2022.

Running in a district along the U.S.-Mexico border, Marine veteran Mendoza isn’t shy about her support for increased law enforcement funding and deportations of violent criminals, like many Democrats trying to appeal to independents. However, she also supports Kelly and Gallego’s bicameral Stop Excessive Force in Immigration Act.

She faces another Trump-endorsed candidate and the first Mexico-born citizen elected to Congress in Arizona.

Klar said Ciscomani’s chances of victory remain high, despite Mendoza’s attempts to appeal to the other side.

“Ciscomani should be nervous, but he’s a fairly well-liked incumbent,” she said.

Early voting for the general election will begin on Oct. 7.

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